Comparison of ARIMA and SARIMA for Forecasting Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil price fluctuations affect the business cycle due to affecting ups and downs of growth economy, which one indicators economic phenomenon. The importance prediction requires a model that can predict future prices quickly, easily, accurately so it be used as reference in determining policies. Machine learning is an accurate method predicting makes easier because there no need program computers manually. ARIMA machine algorithm while uses seasonal component called SARIMA. Based on background, research purpose modeling crude forecasting by Forecasting done daily data taken from Yahoo Finance January 27, 2020 25, 2023. evaluation results show RMSE value SARIMA 1.905. forecast result 7 days ahead with 86.230003 86.260002. are expected helpful for policy makers adopt policies make right decisions use oil.